Box- Jenkins Methodology Used in Predict The Numbers of Patients with Diabetes in DiyalaProvince
1Dr. Haitham Yaqub Yousif
The sugar disease hadknown since ancient times, where a Greek physician Aritaos observed in early 200 BC that some patients develop symptoms of frequent urination and extreme thirst has been named this phenomenon "policyholders" or "Aldiabats" which is a Latin word that means going to the bathroom chair, have discovered the scientists Joseph von Mereynj Oscar Menkoski 1889 the role of the pancreas in diabetes when they removed the pancreas completely dogs, where they showed signs and symptoms of diabetes led to their deaths after a brief period, and in 1910 discovered the world Sir Edward drinkers Scheffer said diabetic patients suffer a shortage of a chemical one produced by the pancreas called insulin. The diabetes at present from more diseases prevalent in the entire world advanced him and developing, as the number of people infected with the disease increasing, and because of the seriousness of this disease and how to predict the numbers of infected and build a standard form to him, it is here came the idea of this research, which was intended to use one of the advanced methods of time series and of methodology Box- Jenkins analysis to predict the numbers of people with diabetes in Diyala province, through the examination of a number of models and choose the best model among these models to represent monthly from 2009-2012 series and thus to predict until the end of 2014.
Stationary, Partial autocorrelation Function PACF, Estimation, Forecasting