Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth, Unemployment, Poverty and The Impact to Human Development Index (HDI)

1Nur Aida, Nur Siti Khumairoh

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Abstract:

The aim of this research is for knowing the correlation between economic growth and unemployment to poverty and the other hand for knowing the correlation between economic growth, (Asfia, 2016), unemployment and poverty to Human Development Index (HDI) as an intervening variable. This research is quantitative research, and the data used is secondary data from BPS for 2010-2016. Analyse tools used in this research is multiplier linear regression, correlation and path analysis. Independent variable is economic growth, unemployment; dependent variable is poverty and human development index. Correlation economic growth and unemployment to poverty quietly strong which is R = 0,974 and R2 are 0,948 meanwhile Correlation between economic growth, unemployment, and poverty to human development index (HDI) quietly strong which is R = 0,965 and R 2 = 0,931. The poverty variable is not a mediating variable between economic growth and HDI because the direct effect of economic growth on HDI is greater than the indirect effect of economic growth on HDI through poverty and this is supported by the Sobel test where the Sobel Test value is 0.66704791 below the 1.96 threshold. The poverty variable is not a mediating variable between unemployment and HDI because the direct effect of unemployment on HDI is greater than the indirect effect of unemployment on HDI through poverty and this is supported by the Sobel test where the Sobel Test value is 1.03759856 below the 1.96 threshold.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Unemployment, Poverty, HDI, Multiple Linier Regression, Path Analysis

Paper Details
Month2
Year2020
Volume24
IssueIssue 3
Pages71-81