Philosophical Analysis of Socio-Economic Forecasting of the Future
1Jumaniyoz Ramatov, Sharofat Rakhmanova, Nasiba Sh. Yunusova
In any society of active, creative activity of people planning and forecasting is inherent. By many researchers, it is established, "that with development of productive forces and industrial relations in a society its regularity amplifies". At each specific historical stage of economic development plans reflected the basic requirements of objective economic laws of society. Therefore, planning was and is a category that regulates the development of productive forces and production relations". In essence, the plan and forecast are similar elements, although the project is considered a more complex category, in the sense that the plan is a directive direction of development, while the results of the forecast depend on many random factors. Besides, making a plan is preceded by a situation analysis, a diagnosis and, finally, a forecast of the result. In this sense, the prognosis is part of the plan. Turning to history, you can trace the relationship between the accuracy of forecasting and time. Throughout history, problems related to the state structure and its management are at the center of economic activity. In addition to the natural economy, they also included the strict regulation of the state economy, which arose during the heyday of these states. In ancient China, Sumer and Egypt, the organization of the economy already presupposed the observance of the proportions between the sectors: agriculture and craft, as well as trade and strategic reserves. In ancient civilizations, the state took care of the construction of irrigation facilities, allowing to produce much more products than in the individual organization of the economy. "State regulation, as a growth of the planned beginning in society, was carried out with the use of price restrictions, monopolization of certain industries, by changing the level of taxation, through the sale of state stocks, etc.".
forecasting, forecasting, economic development, regression models, economic methods, econometric models, financial modeling.