Analysis of The Effect of Macro Economic Factors on Indonesian Export Value Fluctuation (Empirical Data in Period: 1990 To 2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61841/s4nnk255Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Investment, Inflation, Value ExportAbstract
An export is a source of foreign exchange for a country that must be considered and sought as much as possible and as widely as possible by the government. This study aims to determine whether macroeconomic factors, especially the real exchange rate (rupiah against the USD), investment, and inflation affect the value of exports in Indonesia, both long-term and short-term, during the period 1990 to 2018. Research previously produced has gone through several stages of statistical testing. The results of research that have been done show that there has been an equilibrium long-run relationship between these macroeconomic factors and fluctuations in Indonesia's export value; this is evidenced through several stages of statistical tests, but conversely, there is no disequilibrium in sort-run relationships, meaning value, real exchange, investment, and inflation have no effect on the short-run relationship to the value of exports; this is evidenced through the results of the cointegration test and error correction method (ECM) test, where all variable data are not stationary and not cointegration, and the results show are not significant.
Downloads
References
[1]. A.A. Istri Sita Larasati Dan Made Kembar Sri Budhi, Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Kurs Dollar As Terhadap Nilai Ekspor Alas Kaki Indonesia Ke China, E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana Vol.7 No.11 September 2018
[2] Bhattarai, Dr. Keshab R. And Armah, Mark K. 2005, The Effects of Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance in Ghana: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis, Centre for Economic Policy Business School, University of Hull
[3] Blanchard, Olivier, 2003, Macroeconomics, Third Edition. Prentice Hall
[4] Donbusch, Rdiger, 2005, Makro Ekonomi.
[5] Erdem, Ekrem, Tugcu, Can Tansel dan Nazlioglu, Saban, C2008, The J-Curve Effect and Turkey-Germany Trade Balance: An Industry Level Data Analysis.
[6] Gujarati, Damodar N., 2009, Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill International Edition.
[7] Hooy, Chee-Wooi, and Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008, Examining Exchange Rates Exposure, J-Curve, and the MarshallLerner Condition for High Frequency Trade Series between China and Malaysia. MPRA Paper No. 10916, posted 06.October 2008.
[8] Husman, A., 2005, Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Riil Terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia: Kondisi Marshall-Lerner dan Fenomena J-curveJardine, Buietin Ekonomi Moneler dan Perbankan.
[9] Mankiw, N.G. (2006). Principles of Economics. Pengantar Ekonomi Mikro. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
[10] Markusen, James R., Melvin, James R., Kaempfer, William H., and Markus, Keith E., 1995, International Trade Theory and Evidence, McGraw-Hill International.
[11] Okta Rabiana Risma1, T. Zulham2, Taufiq C. Dawood3, Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Produk Domestik Bruto DanNilai Tukar Terhadap Ekspor Di Indonesia, Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam, Volume 4 Nomor 2, September 2018, ISSN. 2502-6976.
[12] Salvatore, Dominick, 2007, International Economics, 9th Edition.
[13] Saudi, M.H.M., Sinaga, O., & Rospinoedji, D., The role of tax education in supply chain management: A case of Indonesian supply chain companies, Polish Journal of Management Studies 18(2):304-319, December 2018.
[14] Shapiro, Alan C., 2003, Multinational Financial Management, Seven Edition,
[15] Yusoff, Dr. Mohammed B., C2000 Trade Balance And Real Exchange Rate In Malaysia
[16] www.worldbank.com december 2019
[17] www.bps.go.id, date 23 december 2019
[18] www.bi.go.id, date 15 december 2019
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 AUTHOR

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation .
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.